Under the October 2025 Busan Accord, China suspended its planned restrictive rare earth export regime for one year.

Under the October 2025 Busan Accord, China suspended its planned restrictive rare earth export regime for one year. With six months of export data now in, we can assess how China is wielding control over these exports. This paper documents a paradox: total Chinese supply rose, yet the volumes reaching different trading partners diverged sharply—a whiff of divide-and-rule. American analysts and officials are likely to read their reduced shipments as discrimination, while the EU and ASEAN saw theirs increase. That generosity may not last if the EU presses ahead with sweeping import curbs on Chinese goods. Happy to answer any questions, and feel free to forward this message and paper.