China's September export numbers rightly made headlines: manufactured exports rose 38% in value year-on-year. Now that granular data are available, we can distinguish between rising export prices and rising volumes (central to "flood" narratives), and assess whether export growth is broad-based or concentrated in a limited range of products....
How broad-based is China’s assault on the commanding heights of EU industry when just five products account for 78% of the import increase in sectors singled out by France and Germany? Looks like China Shock 2.0 is localised (just like the first China shock in the USA)....
Dependencies are a two way street. Identifying them and acting on them are vey different matters. Still, Berlin's apparent move is a sign of the times....
One year on from the political agreement on EU-US trade reached in Turnberry, Scotland, transatlantic trade imbalances have narrowed sharply. However, the EU is not on track to meet its purchase commitments in energy and AI chips....
On 28 July 2026 China’s MOFCOM published a position paper on the trade-related aspects of excess capacity. This follows the initiation in March 2026 of a U.S. investigation into such matters as they relate to 16 trading partners, including China. That investigation may soon result in further import restrictions being imposed by the United States....
Forced labour ranked eighth among allegation types and accounted for just 4.7% of all complaints filed to USA CBP's e-Allegations system since 2023. The percentage falls to 3.1% for allegations made since 2025. Puts in perspective the priority U.S. business attaches to eliminating forced labour imports. Makes me wonder what purpose is really being served...
Between 21 and 24 July 2026 the temporary Section 122 surcharge lapses and two Section 301 tariffs (on Brazil and on forced labour) take its place. The trade-weighted average US tariff barely moves, edging from 11.0% to 11.2%, but the architecture flips from a near-uniform surcharge to country-specific duties. Country tariffs move only modestly and...
The United States Trade Representative's final action in its 60 forced-labour Section 301 investigations took effect on 24 July 2026, imposing additional duties of 10% or 12.5% on all products of the investigated economies, with exemptions set out in two annexes. This overview explains the notice's four rate treatments and three-layer structure, and provides the...
A side-by-side comparison of the articles of the MOU between Iran and USA reported first by Bloomberg and the version apparently submitted to Congress can be found in the table attached. Bottom line: Weaker language on most fronts. The text submitted to Congress strengthens the ceasefire and Lebanon-related provisions but weakens or hedges the most...
Politico reports that this MOU text has been submitted by the US administration to Congress....